Billionaire Elon Musk, leader of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), delivers a speech at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) held at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center in National Harbor, Oxon Hill, Maryland, on February 20, 2025. (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)
The Brief:
- The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has until July 2026 to reduce federal spending by $2 trillion, with approximately one-fifth of the savings allocated to taxpayers.
- Only households that pay income tax would qualify for the payments.
- If DOGE meets its goal, each eligible household could receive a check for $5,000.
WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump has endorsed the highly improbable idea that if the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) manages to slash $2 trillion in federal spending by next year, taxpayers will receive one-fifth of the savings.
If DOGE reaches this ambitious target, each household could receive a check of around $5,000.
However, budget analysts argue that cutting nearly one-third of the federal government’s annual spending is an extremely unrealistic goal.
DOGE’s Accumulated Savings Till Date, According to Musk:
Digging Deeper
James Fishback, the founder of investment firm Azoria Partners — which he launched at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida — endorsed the idea on Tuesday via X, formerly known as Twitter. His post caught the attention of Elon Musk, who replied that he would “check with the president.” Fishback also revealed that discussions on the matter have been taking place privately with White House officials behind the scenes.
Musk claims that his Department of Government Efficiency has managed to cut $55 billion to date—a minuscule portion of the $6.8 trillion federal budget. However, DOGE has yet to provide public verification of these alleged savings, and its assertions that tens of millions of deceased individuals are fraudulently receiving Social Security have been debunked.
Fishback advocates for the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office to officially determine DOGE’s actual savings. He suggests that if DOGE manages to cut $500 billion by July 2026, the checks would be reduced to $1,250 instead of $5,000.
“We exposed massive waste, fraud, and misuse of funds,” Fishback told The Associated Press in an interview. “Our plan is to deliver restitution, uphold our commitment, and ultimately redefine the social contract between taxpayers and the federal government.”
Fishback favors distributing checks over allocating all the funds to deficit reduction, arguing that it would motivate Americans to identify and report government waste “in their communities and notify DOGE.”
July 2026
DOGE’s plan aims to finalize its cost-cutting efforts by July 2026. At that point, one-fifth of the total savings could be shared among approximately 79 million households that pay income tax.
Since around 40% of Americans do not pay income taxes, they would not qualify for a payment.
Will Another Wave of Stimulus Checks Drive Inflation?
Trump and his economic advisors pointed to former President Joe Biden’s $1,200 stimulus checks, distributed in the spring of 2021, as a key factor in rising inflation.
However, Trump’s administration insists that these new checks would be funded through government spending cuts, meaning they wouldn’t contribute to inflation.
Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House’s National Economic Council, explained Thursday that since the government would have spent the money regardless, having it spent by consumers would result in no net change. In contrast to Biden and Trump’s pandemic-era stimulus checks, which were financed through deficit spending and led to inflation, these new checks would be funded by reducing government expenditure.
The Counter-argument:
Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab and a former economist in the Biden White House, disagreed, stating that more government-issued checks are “the last thing we need economically right now.”
Tedeschi pointed out that the U.S. unemployment rate is significantly lower than it was in 2021, meaning businesses might face challenges hiring enough workers to meet the increased demand triggered by another round of checks. This worker shortage could drive up prices.
